Your Home Valuation Is Wrong

Do not make any major decisions based on an online, automated home valuation. You could lose a lot of money. A lot.

How does a $60,000 loss on a $300,000 home sound to you? Ridiculous? Read on.

Of course you are going to look up the value before you make an offer on a home, or prior to selling your current place. Just remember, that number is almost guaranteed to be wrong.

If you make life-changing decisions based on bad information, then you’re jeopardizing your future.

How can I be so sure the information you get online isn’t correct? Because it is statistically unlikely, and most of the sites will even tell you so, in the fine print.

Does it matter which site you use? Not really. Some are better at guessing than others, but they all vary dramatically.

When determining value on a property I typically check ten different online valuation sites. Not because I think they “know” what the home is worth, but because the seller and potential buyers are checking these sites, and it’s better to know in advance what disinformation they are consuming.

Those values are all over the map!

For example, a home with a true market value of $300,000 might have automated valuations ranging from 225,000 to 375,000. That is a large margin of error!

What about the infamous Zillow Zestimate? This is the margin of error stated on their website as of July 26, 2018:

  • Nationwide, Zestimates are currently within 5% of the final sale price 52.9% of the time.
  • In the U.S. as a whole, Zestimates are currently within 10% of the final sale price 73.3% of the time.
  • Nationally, Zestimates are currently within 20% of the final sale price 85.8% of the time.

Let’s put this into real world numbers using the $300k actual value example.

Just over half of the time (52.9%) the Zestimate is within $15,000 (5%) of actual final sales price. That could be high or low, so a $30,000 swing from 285,000 to 315,000.

The Zestimate is within 10% on another 20.4% of homes. That means a $60,000 swing from 270,000 to 330,000. If the buyer believes the real value is 270,000 and the seller thinks it is 330,000… well it’s easy to see we now have a significant problem.

Another 12.5% of homes are within 20%. That produces a $120,000 range of value from 240,000 to 360,000! That is 40% of the actual value! You don’t want to make any decisions based on this information!

Zillow admits they are not even within 20% (high or low) on 14.2% of homes nationally.

Do you want to guess which group your Zestimate falls within? It’s a roll of the dice!

If you’re in the 52.9% group you could lose $15,000.

If you’re in the 20.4% group you could lose $30,000.

If you’re in the 12.5% group you could lose $60,000.

If you’re in the 14.2% group you could lose even more than that!

The last two groups comprise 26.7% of properties. That means you have a greater than 1 in 4 chance of losing $60,000 or more if you base your buying or selling decision on the information you obtained from the big gorilla of real estate data online.

This is a multi-billion dollar company that draws millions of people to the website each and every month. And I have the nerve to warn you against believing what you see in black and white on that website? Yes. That website and dozens of others. Pay attention.

The actual Zestimate, not the range of possibility, the actual published number on my personal residence has gone up and down over the last year $59,000. That is absurd. Home values don’t rise and fall with the wind, like the stock market.

Side note: Facebook stock is down 20% today. Your home doesn’t go on a roller coaster ride every month.

These robot valuations use raw sales data available from public records but they have a huge disadvantage: They have never been inside your home.

They don’t know if the flooring, kitchen cabinets and roof all need replaced, or if they were just completely updated. They can’t see the view; they don’t know if the comparative sales were well cared for or not; they can’t tell if the home next door is an eyesore or worse; they can’t hear the traffic from the highway that decreased the selling price on three of the comparable sales they are using.

The bottom line is you need a trustworthy professional to give you good information.

Contact a full-time, experienced and knowledgeable professional whom you trust to give you good advice so you can make the best decision for your family.

http://www.SweatSellsFlorida.com

All the Best!

Jim Sweat, ABR, CLHMS, CRS, CDPE, GRI, e-PRO, ILHM

Featured in Scene Magazine’s Men on the Scene 2016 issue

Author of REAL ESTATE CSI: CONTROVERSY, SECRETS, INSIGHT (coming soon)

Jim Sweat – Helping Buyers & Sellers Choose Wisely Since 1995 ™

Re/Max  Alliance Group

Mobile: 941-306-7384

http://myfloridahomesmls.com/JimSweat (Home Search)

https://jimsweat.wordpress.com/ (Blog)

www.linkedin.com/in/jimsweat (LinkedIn)

A Proven Professional Working for You!

23 Years Experience

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How Many Million Dollar Homes Sell Every Day in the Tri-county Region of Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte?

How secure is it to purchase a high-end home in this southwest Florida area? Let’s take a quick look at two of our local islands, and then the numbers for each county.

In the last 12 months, there have been 25 closed sales on Casey Key. All but three of them were for over a million dollars. The average sale price was $2.62M, the median was over $2M.

Fifty three single family homes, on Siesta Key, over $1M, on the waterfront sold in the last 12 months (more than one per week). Average sale price was almost $2.6M; with the median at $1.8M.

When I expand the criteria to all sales on Siesta Key for $1M or more, there are six with accepted offers, averaging almost $2.4M asking price; seven are pending with average list price of $2.15M; and 78 sales have closed, with an average selling price of $2.25M. That is 1.5 sales per week, pretty strong demand for million dollar homes on just one barrier island in Sarasota County!

When I proceed to pull the statistics for all of Sarasota County, it confirms that there is a robust market in the $1M and up price range.

Thirty one homes are active with contract (accepted offers in place) with an average list price of $1.72M. Seventy five homes are pending, with an average list price over $2.3M.

395 homes have sold for over a million dollars in the last 365 days in Sarasota County! More than one per day, with an average sales price over $1.9M. The average days on market is 183 in this price range, so it may be a stretch to call it “brisk”, but 395 closed sales is certainly proof of a strong and healthy demand for high end homes in the Sarasota area!

Manatee County has five homes AWC – active with contract, averaging $1.8M; eighteen are pending, averaging $1.74M; one hundred twenty three (123) homes have sold averaging over $1.5M.

Charlotte County is smaller and has six high end homes with accepted offers (AWC) that average $1.59M; ten are pending sales averaging $1.64M; twenty homes have sold with an average sales price of $1.57M.

Total sales for million dollar homes in the Tri-county region are 538; average is almost 1.5 sales per day. So, how secure should someone feel about buying a high end home in Sarasota County, Manatee County, or Charlotte County?

Five hundred thirty eight sales indicate a lot of millionaires are interested enough in our area to put some serious money into real estate here.

Here are some additional things to think about.

Even though the experts were wrong about how quickly interest rates would go up, they will eventually rise beyond the historic lows we have been enjoying. A boost to our area is that property values have been increasing in most of the country, and that will allow many folks who were waiting to regain their equity, to sell up north and move to Florida.

Thousands of baby boomers retire every day, and many of them have spent their entire lives dreaming about owning a home in Florida so they can escape the cold that makes their bones ache!

It isn’t just homes that are selling. When you follow the money, you end up in the Tri-county region.

Last month, Publix paid more than $17 million dollars for the shopping center at University Parkway and Market Street in Lakewood Ranch. In the past year, it also acquired centers in Sarasota, Parrish, Englewood and Port Charlotte.

Publix is just one company that is expanding in the region. A lot of big names are investing heavily in SW Florida. The UTC Mall is the only mall that opened in all of the US last year. Many other big names have either just come to the area, or expanded in the last few years. I am working on an updated list of businesses that have opened commercial locations recently.

I feel good confirming that there is such an active high end residential market, on top of the massive investment regional and national companies are making in our area. This all bodes well for the future, and proves that a lot of smart money is flowing directly into the Sarasota County region.

Follow the money, it leads to Sarasota!

Sales data compiled from the My Florida Regional Multiple Listing System for 3-18-2014 to 3-18-2015.

Respectfully,

Jim Sweat, ABR, CRS, CDPE, GRI, e-PRO, ILHM

REALTOR

Author of REAL ESTATE CSI: CONTROVERSY, SECRETS, INSIGHT (coming 2015)

American Realty of Venice, Inc.

700 W. Venice Ave

Venice, FL 34285

941-484-8080

http://myfloridahomesmls.com/JimSweat Home search

www.linkedin.com/in/jimsweat LinkedIn

https://www.zillow.com/reviews/write/?s=X1-ZUyz3incawqo7d_93ahq Zillow

What is the Gulf Shore Lifestyle? Who is Jim Sweat? Why Should You Care?

Gulf Shore Lifestyle

Stunning sunsets ~ shimmering waters ~ and world-famous, sun-kissed sugar sand beaches.

Championship golf ~ fine dining ~ shopping ~ the fine arts ~ boating ~ fishing ~ hiking ~ biking ~

festivals year round ~ and nature trails galore.

Southwest Florida holds the key for your family to enjoy the rewarding moments of life.

Dreams do come true in the prestigious “Gulf Shore Lifestyle” ~ realize your dream now!

Jim Sweat understands the unique features that make your home a haven and offers you personal service from highly trained professionals, guiding you to a lifetime of pleasant memories.

Take the first step.

Call Jim Sweat for a personal consultation.

Author of REAL ESTATE CSI: CONTROVERSY, SECRETS & INSIGHT (coming soon)

I am publishing an insider’s look at the world of real estate, exposing dangers and dirty tricks that cost you money.

Previously a broker/owner in Michigan, now focused on buyers and sellers in Sarasota, Charlotte and Manatee Counties along Florida’s beautiful Gulf coast. Specialties and advanced training in Residential Listings and Sales; Luxury Homes; Distressed Properties (Foreclosures & Short Sales) and Buyer Representation.

Buying or Selling? Hire a professional to represent you! Buyers want the right home at the right price. Sellers want top market value, in the shortest amount of time, and with the least amount of hassle. Jim Sweat has over 20 years of results-proven experience to help you accomplish your goals and bring about a successful closing.

You have to be careful where you vacation – it can change your life! We were only here for a week the first time we visited the Venice-Sarasota area of Florida. A few months later, we sold our real estate company & our house in South Haven, Michigan and made this beautiful location our home!

To serve you better, Jim has earned numerous designations through his commitment and dedication.

Specialties:

  • ABR – Accredited Buyer Representative
  • CRS- Certified Residential Specialist
  • GRI- Graduate Realtor Institute
  • CDPE- Certified Distressed Property Expert
  • e-PRO- Certified Internet Professional
  • ILHM- Institute for Luxury Home Marketing Member
  • Educational Achievement Award Recipient
  • Residential Sales Council Member

Serving buyers, sellers and investors since 1995. I have worked for national franchises and local independent offices, including the brokerage we owned in South Haven, Michigan. We sold the company, and our home, in 2006 to move to Florida.

You want an agent who is focused on you, your sale and your goals.

My focus is on you.

There are thousands of Realtors in the local area all clamoring for your attention. But your move isn’t about me or them.

It’s about You.

Your Life, Your Goals.

I am here to help you evaluate your situation; determine the best course of action; and implement the strategies to achieve your goals of buying and selling in the shortest amount of time, with the least frustration, and the most net profit in your pocket.

I am industrious, innovative and hands-on; utilizing the best of today’s technology and good old-fashioned customer service.

Respectfully,

Jim Sweat, ABR, CRS, CDPE, GRI, e-PRO, ILHM

REALTOR

Author of REAL ESTATE CSI: CONTROVERSY, SECRETS, INSIGHT (coming soon)

American Realty of Venice, Inc.

700 W. Venice Ave

Venice, FL 34285

941-484-8080

http://myfloridahomesmls.com/JimSweat Home search

www.linkedin.com/in/jimsweat LinkedIn

https://www.zillow.com/reviews/write/?s=X1-ZUyz3incawqo7d_93ahq Zillow

Can you believe what I found when I searched “Jim Sweat” online?

Online search reveals “Segal’s Law” scenario.

Wow!

This is a problem for me, other Realtors, and our clients.

Segal’s law is an adage that states:

“A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.”

It refers to the pitfalls of having too much potentially conflicting information when making a decision.

The same thing happens on the internet. I just searched my own name, something I have to do from time to time because I am in a very public business.

The results showed that I have been in the real estate business for 4, 8, 9, 17 or 20 years. Quite a spread.

My production during that time is even more interesting: I have sold 1, 2, 43, or a vague “hundreds of homes” during my entire career.

When you go online to get answers, you want good information. Admittedly, many of the websites I found myself on I have never heard of before, but I did only look at the ones that had my “actual info” and not one of the dozens of other Jim Sweats out there.

Let’s be smart about this. To sort through all of the garbage online and get the real scoop, let’s just look at the best websites.

Is it safe to assume that the top two sites would have the best information? I am talking the two with the most monthly visitors; the largest dollar valuations; publicly traded companies that dominate all of the others for real estate search. This should give us the most accurate, up to date information available, right? They even state that they update their information regularly.

Zillow and Trulia (who are in the process of merging, subject to government approval) are the dominate players in real estate search, and they do not have my information correct. Not even close.

Yes, they have my 20 years right, but Zillow had me completing only two (2) sales during my entire career, and Trulia had me down for just one (1)!

I am in the process of getting those things updated, so the numbers should be different by the time you look for yourself. But, let’s get real! I have had a profile on each of these sites for over five years! How long does it take to “update regularly”?!?

So, is the problem that I have not paid them to make my information accurate? Possibly. I have called them and they tell me they will update my information and it will begin to fill in. But I didn’t pay them, and nothing changed. Trulia says I don’t have any reviews, but there are seven on the site. However, I don’t have any ratings because the reviews were added by folks before the ratings featured existed.

Millions of people go to these sites every month. I would like to ignore them, because the information is factually-challenged, but I can’t do that when most of my potential customers are on these sites.

What about all of the websites I have never even heard of?

See my blog: Real Estate Misinformation and Extortion for more details on the extortion that takes place. https://jimsweat.wordpress.com/2015/01/16/real-estate-misinformation-and-extortion/

Thousands of companies’ business models can be summed up simply “Get money from agents”.

I used to try to keep my info updated on real estate sites, but there is no way to keep up.

The public is going to get a LOT of bad information when they go online. There is no alternative.

Be careful, folks! There is a wealth of information, and misinformation, available online. Find someone trustworthy to help you make sense of it all. It could mean thousands of dollars in your pocket!

Respectfully,

Jim Sweat, ABR, CRS, CDPE, GRI, e-PRO, ILHM

REALTOR

Author of REAL ESTATE CSI: CONTROVERSY, SECRETS, INSIGHT (available 2015)

American Realty of Venice, Inc.

700 W. Venice Ave

Venice, FL 34285

941-484-8080

http://myfloridahomesmls.com/JimSweat Home search

www.linkedin.com/in/jimsweat LinkedIn

http://www.trulia.com/profile/jimsweat Trulia

https://www.zillow.com/reviews/write/?s=X1-ZUyz3incawqo7d_93ahq Zillow